Naming a favorite for Formula One’s first race back from “spring break” might seem easy, given the dominant form of Red Bull and, in particular, Max Verstappen so far this season.
But when it comes to this weekend’s Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku, things aren’t so straightforward.
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The six previous F1 races at the Baku City Circuit have produced six different winners, coming from as far back as 10th place on the starting grid. There’s been last-lap drama, champions clashing behind the safety car, and even moves overtaking three cars in a single corner.
The race promoters in Baku are happy to lean into the drama the high-speed street track so often produces. Their slogan: “Expect the Unexpected.”
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“We even came up with a term: ‘Baku syndrome’” said Turab Teymurov, official spokesperson for the Baku City Circuit. “Because each year, there is a different winner.”
But how did one of the newest tracks on the F1 calendar quickly gain such a reputation? And as F1 prepares to embark on not only its first sprint race of the weekend, but a new format with “Sprint Shootout” qualifying, are the chances of chaos now higher than ever?
The key to tyres at the #AzerbaijanGP? Balancing tyre temperatures between front and rear 🌡️ #Fit4F1 pic.twitter.com/Iy9fsinSsj
— Pirelli Motorsport (@pirellisport) April 27, 2023
A brief history of Baku
When the Baku City Circuit joined the F1 calendar as the “European Grand Prix” in 2016, the high-speed street layout immediately had the makings of an eventful race. Here’s how each year has gone down:
- 2016: A number of crashes in the GP2 (now Formula 2) event that year turned the F1 race into something of a processional, as drivers erred on the side of caution and focused on getting home. Nico Rosberg, world champion that year, took a comfortable win in a race that saw no safety cars and little drama.
- 2017: Only 13 cars finished a bizarre race that had two safety car periods, a collision behind the safety car when Sebastian Vettel drove into title rival Lewis Hamilton, and a charge from 10th on the grid to victory for Daniel Ricciardo, complete with a three-in-one overtake en route to the win.
- 2018: Ricciardo crashed with Red Bull teammate Max Verstappen, ending his race early and playing a part in his eventual decision to leave the team. The safety car took control of the race from Sebastian Vettel and put Valtteri Bottas in position to win, only for a late puncture to hand victory to Hamilton.
- 2019: Redemption came for Bottas, who dominated without any major incidents.
- 2020: Year off due to Covid-19.
- 2021: Leading comfortably with six laps left, Verstappen crashed out after a left rear tire failure. With debris strewn across the track, the race was red flagged before resuming with a two-lap shootout — à la Australia this year — where Lewis Hamilton took the lead for less than a second before running off-track at Turn 1 after knocking a switch on his steering wheel that put the brakes in the wrong setting. He finished last, throwing away a costly 18 points, while Sergio Pérez won the race ahead of surprise podium finishers Sebastian Vettel and Pierre Gasly.
- 2022: A tamer affair, dominated by Red Bull as Verstappen led home Pérez for a 1-2 finish. But getting a sixth different winner of the race only went to further prove the existence of “Baku syndrome.”
ricciardo triple overtake pic.twitter.com/xSN3RmPx7R
— neo's 🎥 (@mediafromneo) June 12, 2022
“With some tracks, you can kind of guess how it’s going to end up, who is going to win,” said Teymurov. “But here, everything can turn even on the last corner. That’s what makes it so unpredictable.”
What makes Baku such a chaotic track?
The thing about this street track isn’t just that it’s quick (Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Corniche Circuit is faster), but that it mixes high-speed sections with slow, 90-degree corners.
“It’s a track that is difficult and tricky, and where it’s very easy to do a mistake,” said Alpine’s Pierre Gasly. “Doing a sprint race here will make bring even more action, so there will be opportunities for sure.”
Baku’s long straights means teams will be trimming out the downforce from their setups, running skinny wings to give their cars as high a top speed as possible. From the final braking point of the lap at Turn 16 to Turn 1, there is a 1.4-mile (2.2 km) full throttle run, making it a prime overtaking spot. It should be where Red Bull’s straight-line speed advantage is particularly noticeable this weekend.
But tailoring a car for maximum speed makes the slower corners all the more challenging: drivers will miss that lost downforce as they try to get through tight turns without sacrificing all their pace.
The Baku City Circuit mixes high-speed sections with slow, 90-degree corners. (Resul Rehimov/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Turns 1 through 7 are all 90-degree corners at the end of straights, before the track snakes uphill through the “castle section” — past the UNESCO-protected 15th-century Maiden Tower — where there isn’t space to even run side-by-side. This opens up into a full-throttle run out of Turn 12 through to Turn 15, a tricky downhill braking point that is easy to get wrong.
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“This track is all about confidence under braking,” said Alfa Romeo’s Zhou Guanyu, who picked Turn 15 and the castle section as the hardest points on the track. “If you’re confident, you can outperform your car, or underperform easily both ways. Everyone is running low downforce. It’s about who can run it best around the corners.”
Another factor to consider in Baku is the wind. Baku is known as the “city of winds” and lived up to that even through media day on Thursday as gusts hovered around 19 mph (30 km/h). Although it’s more of a mild annoyance to those going about their days, it can have a big impact on how the cars feel and handle on-track.
A ‘ludicrous’ place for a sprint
Just to add an extra challenge for drivers, Baku will host the first F1 sprint of the season, meaning there’s an extra race on Saturday to contend with. Just to spice things up even more, this will be the first use of the “Sprint Shootout” format, adding a qualifying session on Saturday morning in place of second practice. (Qualifying for Sunday’s Grand Prix will happen Friday.)
Teams are already sweating about the possibility that more competitive action will produce extra incidents. Repairs would pose an added time pressure with the Miami race a week later, but the bigger worry is the cost, particularly with teams facing a strict budget cap that carries significant sanctions for breaching. In Baku, there’s no such thing as a small accident.
“It’s absolutely ludicrous to be doing the first sprint race of the year in a street race like Azerbaijan,” said Red Bull boss Christian Horner. “From a cost cap perspective, all you can do is trash your car, and it costs a lot of money around there.”
Horner did acknowledge that for fans, it was “probably going to be one of the most exciting sprint races of the year.”
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It is that kind of excitement that Baku embraces. “One thing that Horner was right about was that it’s going to be a great spectacle for the fans,” said Teymurov. “So that, I agree with.”
The element of surprise
Baku’s knack for producing unexpected results is good news for those further down the order and a source of worry for those with more to lose. Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso, with three third-place finishes to his name this season, urged caution.
“It’s a weekend of avoiding mistakes, not a weekend of making something special,” said Alonso. “It’s something we need to approach in a very cautious manner.”
For championship leader Verstappen, the new format is an added headache to throw in to his preparations for the weekend. He said it would be “quite difficult and hectic to nail the car setup” in just a single practice, and the strong form at points of Ferrari and Mercedes in qualifying could create a fight at the front. “I expect it to be a close one,” he said.
With limited practice running, two qualifying rounds and two races, the chances of “Baku syndrome” striking seem higher than ever this weekend. It’ll all be about who can seize the moment and cash in if — or when — the drama unfolds.
(Lead image: Resul Rehimov/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Luke Smith is a Senior Writer covering Formula 1 for The Athletic. Luke has spent 10 years reporting on Formula 1 for outlets including Autosport, The New York Times and NBC Sports, and is also a published author. He is a graduate of University College London. Follow Luke on Twitter @LukeSmithF1
