In a previous post, I laid out the best science we have on persuasion, and here I want to take a decidedly unscientific but highly practical page from the world of …. Psychics.
One of the more insightful books I have come across is Ian Rowland's The Full Facts Book of Cold Reading. Rowland has been a professional psychic for decades, and in this book, he lays out 38 tactics for Cold Reading, which is what Tarot, Palmistry, and other mentalists are all doing. Putting these out in a book got Rowland in hot water among the psychic community. But I am eternally grateful as it allowed me to appreciate the psychic arts as a Psychic Skeptic.
First, let me tell you my psychic belief system - it's a fun party trick. Psychic powers have no scientific backing, and there are a lot of grifters who call themselves psychics in one form or another. Still, we can learn a lot from how cold reading works. While psychics are not reading your mind, they are exploring the latent space of your mind with what are essentially verbal probes.
Whether you are a psychic or not, the probes Rowland teaches us to use are a fascinating way to understand another person.
But the probe will only work if the other person allows it, so we start with the setup.
"No matter how this intimate atmosphere is created, the point is to dissuade the client from being too challenging and to promote the sense of participation in a _ritual_. Rituals are an excellent way to constrain normal mental responses (including the "Wait a minute, this is all nonsense' response) and thereby condition behavior. This is why rituals feature in every religion and military organization in the world (p29)."
As Rowland tells it, the theater of a psychic is not that much different from visiting the theater of a therapist, a doctor, or a lawyer. They even use many of the same props. Things like credentials, certificates, or thick reference books which they can dramatically reach for to help them with fine interpretations of science and law. Even the aged patina of those props matters. We tend to trust old things; they have stood the test of time, they have been used reliably, they are Lindy. Things can acquire that patina from actual age, but you can also use Rowland's method of dipping your cards in weak tea and slowly drying them.
Of course, Testimonials from VIP clients are always a winner.
You have to express this for the client to take the thing seriously, and it's a form of conditioning the client. It also helps to discourage awkward questions. With doctors and lawyers, we call these specialties, and psychics usually specialize as well. Tarot, palmistry, mentalism, astrology, etc. What specialty shows is that the psychic, doctor, or lawyer takes this seriously themselves. They have studied and they know something that you do not.
Co-operation
Interpretation is a two-way street; more often than not, the client will provide the bulk of the information. Some will even quickly jump at the chance to tell you what they want to hear. This does somewhat diminish the fun of a reading. But especially with skeptics, it helps to build this bridge of co-operation, as it excuses failure as much on them as yourself. Additionally, it's common to start with that person's history, such as have you had any recent readings? Changes in medical conditions? Run-ins with the law?
Nothing sells competence more than quick confidence in actions. Like a doctor or a person in uniform, when someone walks in and can quickly assess and respond to a situation, we tend to trust that they have some knowledge of what they are doing. It might not be true, and it might not be fair, but it's a persistent feature of the human condition.
The Eternal Human Condition
Rowland says that most readings fall into 4 themes: Career, Relationships, Health, and Money.
But I would extend that to say that the entire human condition comes down to - Status, Relationships, Health, and Money. Those are the things that we care about, fear losing, seek out more of, and ultimately drive all of our decisions, including going to get a palm reading, going to the doctor, and seeing a therapist or a lawyer.
This is where the psychic differs from the other theaters. Again, to the best of my understanding, a psychic is not so much reading our minds as exploring our minds. And the way that starts is by putting people at ease.
Fine Flattery: These are the sections where Rowland is especially perceptive. He defines fine flattery as the suggestion that a person is a slight improvement to 'people in general' or to 'those around you'. Which is to say that effective fine flattery needs a baseline.
If you give someone a basic compliment such as 'you are really honest', it may even be true, but it's pure flattery, and we are innately suspicious of that approach. Second, it has no baseline; are you saying that they are more honest than who? You? Third, it provides no evidence for the claim.
A better example would be: I can see you value honesty a lot, more than some of those around you. You have and hold secrets, but you have learned through experiences when someone else is not being fully honest.
This person might lie like a house on fire themselves, but everyone likes to think that they are great judges of other people's honesty. We all love to think of ourselves as great friends. Even more, we are wise to the world. Hard-working, check. Fair-minded, check. Independent, check. Warm and Loving, check and check.
Rainbow Ruse: When you credit someone with a trait and its opposite. This works as well as it does because it offers an opportunity to make a joke about human failings. For example, "I can see you are considerate, and quick to help others, but… there are times, if you are honest when the selfish streak comes out."
However, this only works if you…
Avoid the Quantifiable: Never make a statement that can be falsified by past experience. You can do this by keeping things general, but you can also emphasize the potential for things to change in the future.
(A really good breakdown of these points is in the
Rohit Krishnan
post "How Much Should You Lie?")
Crediting Credit
A variation of Fine Flattery is extending the other person credit for having the same type of insights that you have yourself. In a psychic reading, this would be Psychic intuition. But if you are in finance, this would be financial acumen. If you are in marketing, this would be storytelling. You want to grab onto any insights that the client provides and use them as proof that they themselves are understanding, and being understood.
Crucially, this is a setup routine. It opens the door to a "Jargon Blitz" when you paper over a weak point with a bunch of googly-gook-words like 'higher-triad', 'Markov Chain', or 'Entropic Trust'. If you mention a few of them now while you are telling that person that they must clearly understand those words, and they keep nodding along, it's very likely that they will nod along the next time you start throwing out a Jargon Blitz.
Sugar Lumps
These are statements that make the client feel good for believing in the service being offered. For psychic services like Rowland's, there is always a sense of 'open-mindedness'. But these are also the bread-and-butter of any marketing campaign. Be free, smart, rebellious, cool, desired, exclusive, cared for, respected, etc. Psychics and Brands are no different; they want you to feel good about using their service. It's about feelings over features.
Based on Shakespeare's Seven Ages of Man speech from As You Like It:
'All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players.
They have their exits and their entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages….'
The insight comes from the fact that we have to transition from each of these stages, and each transition puts us in a place of uncertainty. For men in particular, these happen in years that end with a 9, so 19, 29, 39, etc. That is when people face predictable crises of direction, the mid-life crisis.
A Jacques Statement is simply a recognition that these predictable events are the predictable reason why a person might seek the help of a psychic. But for all advisors, there are a lot of places where we can predictably assume that the reason a person is seeking our advice is because of a transition of some sort. The seven ages of man apply to companies, relationships, and any other cycle of life and death.
To illustrate, let's look at two types of Jacques Statements: frustrated talent and greener grass.
Youth and Startups both have the excitement of boundless possibilities. But as you pass those early days, the limits of reality start to close in. You wanted it to be one way, but it's the other, and now you are stuck. What if it had been the other? The essence of frustrated talent is the dissipation of the possible. Which then gives rise to the other frustration: what if the grass really is greener?
FRUSTRATED TALENT GREENER GRASS
That might strike some as stereotyping, and it is, but insofar as it is true, the point is to make the other person feel understood, which is what we all want.
When we feel understood, the effect is to disarm our normal skepticism.
Sometimes, such as in therapy, it is absolutely critical for that person to disarm. For Rowland's and other Psychic clients, those clients are willingly seeking out their guidance.
This is another section where Rowland really shines. You'll notice that a lot of the previous points are what you might call 'safe assumptions' about people and their psychological state of mind. Rowland then illustrates how to use 'fuzzy facts' and other very educated guesswork, in cooperation with the client, to make it seem like they know things about you that would be impossible to know.
Fuzzy Fact: an apparently factual statement that (a) is quite likely to be accepted and (b) leaves plenty of scope to develop into something more specific. (P46)
Let's assume this is a psychic reading in America. The reader might say something like:
I'm seeing a connection to Europe, possibly Britain, or it could be the warmer, Mediterranean part.
Note the key characteristics are that it is both distant and general. The connection could be anything: romantic, professional, or social interest. If the client has any connection at all, they will provide the details. For example, that question is directly from the book, and I myself would be forced to respond, "Yes, actually I met my wife in Britain."
With that one answer, the Psychic is off to the races, refining in any one of a number of directions. What's more, if this actually happened, I would likely tell you the story differently. In my misremembered retelling, it would be something like:
I can see you met your wife in Britain.
The fuzzy fact is what allows a psychic to explore our fuzzy memories. Another example of a fuzzy fact is to combine it with what we know about Jacques Statements. For example:
Is the number 9 significant to you?
This is an example of a Good Chance Guess because of what we know about 9s and ages of crisis. It could also be an address, since on a street of 100 houses, 19 will have a 9. In a pinch, the reader can also pivot to other people, which gives about a 50% chance of getting a hit in someone's memory.
This kind of statistical thinking was one of the most surprisingly unsurprising things I learned about the Psychic profession. I had never thought of psychics as statistically adept, but of course they are. Their job is educated guesswork, and they make a profession out of it. Which is why psychics will increase the odds of a hit by employing one or two fuzzy facts and a good guess together, like:
Now I'm seeing something about the end of August, around the 26th or thereabouts, and a man close to you who wears glasses.
Again, this is a direct quote from the book, and as it happens, I myself have a brother with a birthday right around there. He doesn't wear glasses, but if I were to see him in glasses the next time I see him, it would seem beyond belief - must be psychic.
But of course, the statement is both fuzzy and a good guess. Late August is one of the most common birthdays, but it can be an anniversary, a professional event, or something to do with school. And the man could be a teacher, a family member, or anyone of notoriety. The more chances you become aware of, the more opportunities you can see to make Good Lucky Guesses about all kinds of things. Because remember the other key insight of the fuzzy fact:
The hits get remembered; the misses are forgotten.
(That's just good life advice!)
When you combine good guessing, fuzzy facts, and forgotten misses, you realize that we all have psychic potential. Rowland points out that the best psychics will often be very well informed on a wide array of cultural trends, local and national demographics, childhood psychology, as well as arcane trivia such as:
Most people have or had a scar on their left knee.
Most people will have experienced a childhood accident involving water.
Most people still have a childhood toy.
Most people inherit jewelry or medals from a family member.
Most people have unfulfilled athletic or artistic ambitions from childhood.
Most women own at least one earring with a missing pair.
Most men own a suit that no longer fits, but they still own it.
There is one last and especially fascinating tactic that Rowland describes: The Push Statement. As Rowland says, "The whole point of a Push Statement is that the psychic seems aware of something that the client herself had forgotten." This is much easier said than done because the details have to be common enough to be possible, but unusual enough to be beyond mere guesswork. This often involves pushing past an initial refusal, because the connection is supposed to be unlikely. The example Rowland gives is The Red Floor.
About three months ago, I see you standing in a room. It seems strange to mention it, but the floor is Red, or Reddish. You are not home, and it's not for work. But you are expected to be there, someone wants you there, and you are waiting to see them. But this red color is all around you.
After an expected pushback, the psychic needs to express their own self-confidence in the statement. How to do this is very much a tacit art. However, IF the client is able to make a connection, the psychic not only seems psychic, but the client is also now in the area of their memory where the psychic can illustrate the memory themselves. This type of memory offers the most fertile ground for a psychic exploring someone's memory because the memory is being reconstructed in part BY the psychic. Rowland does NOT say this himself, but he heavily implies it by all of his other comments about the fragility of memories in the book.
This Push Statement works as well as it does for two reasons:
1 - Initial Resistance: This first pushback makes the later surprise that much bigger. There is a famous paper that shows if we are initially suspicious of a person, but come to like them, we end up trusting them much more than even the people we liked from the start. The distance traveled matters, and that applies to people as well as ideas.
2 - Sparsity of memory: Because the memory is distant, it is by definition not well remembered. In the process of recalling our memories, we are much more likely to accept details from the psychic, true or not. We don't remember; we are remembering with the help of a psychic, and that is an active process happening in the present.
The goal of any good psychic is to leave the client wondering -
What else do they know?
I have read this book a few times in my life, and I will freely admit to using some of these tactics for fun and games and sales and marketing. I am no psychic, but I do love a party trick.
However, on this last read, the thing I noticed was just how similar it was to the Secret Police Interrogation that Vaclav Havel described.
It seems that Psychics and Secret Police both understand one critical element of human psychology:
They provide the words, but clients provide the significance.
Rowland places us in a Tarot Reading that we willingly went to, but let's also consider how these same tactics might be interpreted in an interrogation room because as I said, this is basically a guide for how to explore the latent space of a person's mind.
The police bring you in, they show you a badge, they offer you a coffee, they offer you some fine flattery. And the reading begins. They know you met your wife in Britain, they know your brother's birthday. How did they know about the scar on your knee? And then and then…. They knew about the meeting, and even I didn't remember that the carpet was red. How did they know? What else do they know?
"The point is that they know something about you, not everything, but enough to make it seem like everything." - Havel
The psychic is performing an interrogation as much as the police are performing a cold reading because they are doing the same thing and often using the same tactics to explore our minds.
