by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2024-05-03 15:45:16
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, May 3rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy Friday! We’re back from a Thursday siesta with a nice little 9-game slate on tap for Friday night. The mix of pitchers looks fairly jumbled at the top. There are quite a few playable options, but nobody stands out as the can’t-miss SP1. As a result, projected ownership looks spread out on the pitching side.
We should see more of the same on the hitting side. We don’t have to deal with Coors Field, and there isn’t a single team out there with an implied run total north of 5. Let’s jump in and see if we can figure out how to build on DraftKings.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Some of the earlier games are dealing with weather, but LAA/CLE is the only game on the main slate popping up on Roth’s early weather report. We’ve got a GREEN/YELLOW in Cleveland with light showers in the area, and it doesn’t sound like they’re much of a threat to pop up over the ballpark.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Byron Buxton left Wednesday’s game after pulling up lame running the bases, which is a story we’ve read a time (or 8) before. The team hasn’t yet provided an update other than saying he would get an MRI on his right knee, so we’re still waiting on a verdict. We don’t have him in the Twins’ projected lineup ahead of tonight’s clash with the Red Sox. Alex Kirilloff, Max Kepler, and Trevor Larnach are projected to man the outfield spots for Minnesota, while Ryan Jeffers is currently slotted in the No. 3 hole in the order.
- Giancarlo Stanton got the day off for the Yankees yesterday, but he’s expected to man his standard DH role and bat 5th against Reese Olson and the Tigers. Aaron Judge is likely to return to the outfield after serving as the DH in Stanton’s spot on Thursday.
- Travis d’Arnaud will likely resume starting catching duties for the Braves in LA after getting Wednesday’s game off. Chadwick Tromp should head back to the bench. Atlanta will face right-hander Gavin Stone, which could mean a start in the outfield for Jarred Kelenic instead of Adam Duvall. D’Arnaud and Kelenic are projected to hit 8th and 9th, respectively.
- Xander Bogaerts should be back in there for the Padres after getting a breather on Wednesday. We have Bogaerts slotted into the No. 5 spot in the order in Arizona, where the Pads will take their swings against Slade Cecconi.
- We’re projecting Joey Loperfido to return to the Astros’ lineup after he got Thursday off against left-hander Logan Allen. The rookie is 2-for-9 through his first two MLB appearances, and he gets a tough draw at home against George Kirby and the Mariners. Loperfido’s return would likely send Jake Meyers back to the bench. Chas McCormick landed on the IL on Wednesday, while infielder Jacob Amaya was recalled in the corresponding move. Jon Singleton is likely to draw another start at first base with Jose Abreu having been banished back to the Spring Training facility.
- Logan O’Hoppe should do the catching for the Angels after getting Wednesday’s game off. Matt Thaiss drew the start in that one. Brandon Drury is questionable for the Halos after he was scratched from Wednesday’s lineup with a migraine. Ehire Adrianza would likely start in place of Drury again if he can’t give it a go. Miguel Sano landed on the IL the other day with knee soreness, and the team called up Rangers legend Willie Calhoun to take his spot on the roster.
- Esteury Ruiz is projected to hit leadoff for the A’s after he started Wednesday’s game on the bench. Meanwhile, Abraham Toro is expected to serve as the A’s everyday starting first baseman after Ryan Noda was optioned to Triple-A earlier in the week. Toro is projected to bat 5th against lefty Ryan Weathers. Brent Rooker should also return after an off day on Wednesday.
- Gabriel Moreno was a late scratch from the D-backs’ lineup on Wednesday after having undergone a dental procedure earlier that day. Moreno is expected to be in there tonight against Dylan Cease and the Padres, though Tucker Barnhart would be the starting catcher if Gabby isn’t quite ready to go.
- The Red Sox say Masataka Yoshida will require surgery on his injured thumb, so he’ll be out of the mix for a while. Boston also signed ex-Met Dominic Smith to a deal earlier in the week with Triston Casas on the 60-day IL.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- If anyone does pop as the SP1, it’ll probably be Sonny Gray ($10,100) at home against those miserable, miserable White Sox. The Sox have been a little less miserable over the past few games, but this projected lineup still owns a paltry .136 ISO against RHP dating back to the start of last season. For his part, Gray has been fantastic through 4 starts with the Cardinals, boasting a gaudy 36% strikeout rate with minuscule walk and barrel rates. Something tells me his 1.16 ERA and 2.16 SIERA aren’t sustainable, but they might be sustainable for one more start against this middling offense.
- Dylan Cease ($9,300) and Brady Singer ($9,100) are next up in terms of salary, though I wouldn’t expect the overpriced Singer to gain much traction in a tough spot at home against the Rangers. Cease isn’t in an easy spot of his own against the Diamondbacks on the road, and he comes with the usual control-related caveats. Cease’s walk rate is up over 10% again this season, but he’s also got a K rate pushing 29%. The issue is that Arizona is a high-contact offense with a double-digit walk rate vs. RHP on the season. Cease is really just a GPP differentiator on this slate, while I doubt I’ll get to Singer at all.
- Tanner Bibee ($8,500 vs. LAA), Marcus Stroman ($8,800 vs. DET), Chris Paddack ($6,300 vs. BOS), and JP Sears ($6,100 vs. MIA) are some cheaper options that should garner some ownership. Bibee has been fairly boom-or-bust this season, but the strikeouts (26%) are still there. The Angels have also whiffed 23% of the time vs. RHP on the season, and the lineup simply isn’t imposing with guys like Mike Trout and Miguel Sano out of it. Stroman is a pure matchup play against a middling Detroit lineup, while Paddack and Sears are intriguing punts. I’d expect Sears to be the more popular of the two, but the Red Sox team Paddack will face is incredibly watered-down on paper.
- I don’t think we’re going to feel great stacking any one offense. Low totals across the board also means we likely won’t see obvious chalk, either. I suppose the top stack by default is the Braves against Gavin Stone. Stone isn’t missing bats (16.5% K rate), while his walk rate early in the season is 11%. It doesn’t feel like the Braves have really gotten going yet offensively, but I’m more than happy to buy low here assuming the pOWN% is reasonably low. Stone’s career ground-ball rate is 10% lower against lefties in a small sample, so I’d start any Atlanta stack with Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris. Of course, the hefty salaries here mean we’ll have to be punting with at least one of Sears or Paddack in order to afford the full stack.
- Charlie Morton is the bigger name taking the mound in this game, and he’s been dominant against righties (31% Ks, .216 wOBA) early in the season. That strikeout stuff hasn’t been there against lefties (19%), however, so I’d put Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy right there on the same level as the pay-up options on the Atlanta side. James Outman ($3,500) and Andy Pages ($3,600) are a couple of cheaper bats I’m happy to mini-stack with the big boppers if I’m going all-out with the 5-man group. As is the case with the Braves, we’re unlikely to see massive ownership on the Dodgers’ side.
- The Padres aren’t as imposing on paper this season without Juan Soto, but they do draw one of the more attackable matchups on the board against Slade Cecconi on the road. This is a park upgrade for this offense, and Cecconi is a righty with a subpar 20% career strikeout rate at the MLB level. He hasn’t otherwise been terrible, but this stack is pretty affordable once you get past Fernando Tatis ($5,300) and Manny Machado ($4,800). We’ve got some cheaper lefties worth targeting, Jake Cronenworth ($4,300), Jackson Merrill ($3,600), and Jurickson Profar ($3,700), and Tatis is the only hitter in this offense currently projected for double-digit ownership. Dollar for dollar, the Padres will be my top stack.
- If you’re looking for cheap one-off bats, I don’t mind looking to Tyler Nevin ($2,600), Michael Massey ($2,800), Mitch Garver ($3,300), Jo Adell ($2,900), Leody Taveras ($3,100), or Dylan Moore ($3,100).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, be sure to catch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 5:00 PM ET. I’ll be on Crunch Time with Cheese and Roth, so tune in…or else.
Good luck!
Image Credit: Getty Images
